Your Election Day Riots Forecast: Where Will I Be?

Joshua Lott for The Washington Post via Getty Images

It is without exaggeration that I have had multiple people tell me: “Where are you going to be on Election Day? It’s so I can know if I need to leave town.”

It’s something that I’ve thought a lot as we get closer to November 5. To start with a caveat, my riot predictions are never concrete this far out. Riots by their nature are chaotic and unpredictable. Anything can happen that throws conventional wisdom out the window when it comes to these events. It’s hard enough to predict hurricanes with “The Science!” and “The Experts!” we have at our disposal.

That is why my answer to those who have asked me that question is: I don’t know.

It has been known for a long time that should Donald Trump get into the White House again, the Left, not just the Far-Left, will get back into the streets with greater fervor. In some cities, it won’t just be the homegrown radicals who will take kinetic action, but our “new neighbors” will likely get involved since a new Trump administration would mean they are packing their bags to head home.

Over 200,000 migrants have arrived to New York City since 2022. Over 50,000 are in Chicago. Denver has around 42,000. Obviously, not all of them will participate in rioting, but if even a fraction, say 5,000, join U.S. citizens, that will quickly overwhelm a police department in any major city.

Another reason why it is hard to say where I’ll be on Election Day is because it is possible that we will not find out who won on the 5th, which is crazy for a nation like ours.

But let’s say we find out on the same day like a normal nation does. Trump wins. Here are the cities where I think will have some major action that night:

• New York City

• Chicago

• Los Angeles

• Minneapolis

• Portland, Oregon (no matter who wins)

• Seattle

• Austin

• Milwaukee

• Atlanta

• Denver

• Philadelphia

• St. Louis

• Washington, D.C.

As you can see, the issue is not, “What is the one place I should go to,” but it’s, “I can’t be at all places at once.” For those who might think they’re safe because they don’t live in any of the cities I mentioned, I would remind them in 2020 I went to lesser-known places, such as Kenosha and Wauwatosa. Lancaster, Pennsylvania also had a riot that year.

One of my biggest lessons from 2020 is that anywhere with a metro area with a population larger than 50,000 are at risk. What we know to be a civil society can descend into anarchy within 24 hours. The good news is as U.S. citizens, we can use our 2nd Amendment rights to protect ourselves but things get tough when the timeline extends more than a week (Minneapolis is a prime example.)

I’ll be honest and say I don’t see another January 6-type event if Trump loses. Unless the election is blatantly stolen, which I don’t believe will be the case, the federal government crackdown on J6 participants has had a chilling effect on conservatives protesting in general.

That is the way I see at this point. As always, I’ll go where the story is.

I’m certainly preparing for the worst.