More Evidence Points To Gazan Rocket Hitting Hospital, Not IDF

SDEROT, Israel — The situation here in the Holy Land took a dramatic turn last night after news of a hospital in the Gaza Strip experiencing an explosion, reportedly killing hundreds of people seeking shelter there. In a surprise to no one, Hamas blamed Israel, saying it was an airstrike while Israel said it was a misfired rocket that fell short.

I initially was not going to say anything because I thought I had nothing to contribute to the discourse since I did not see the event take place or was nearby to look for myself. But not long after the explosion, the reports of when it happened made me realize the leading evidence of a misfired rocket makes sense. Israel War Room posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, at 8:55 P.M. local time: “Reports suggest that the mass casualty event at the Baptist Hospital in Gaza City was the result of a misfired rocket launch by Hamas. No IDF air activity was reported at the time and the timing coincided with a salvo of rockets launched at Israel. Reminder: 30-40% of Hamas' rockets misfire and land short in the Gaza Strip.”

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) posted a video clip from an Al Jazeera broadcast showing at 6:59 P.M., a rocket fired from Gaza, aimed at Israel, misfires and then explodes. A few seconds later, still at 6:59 P.M., the hospital in Gaza is hit. Surveillance video also captured the same moment from a different angle.

The times line up with what I experienced on the outskirts of Sderot. At 6:59 P.M., I had to rush to a bomb shelter, along with several reporters and Israeli security forces because a barrage of rockets was fired at central and southern Israel. I got the most notifications from the Red Alert app at one time since I’ve been on the ground. Once we got the all-clear, rockets could still be seen being fired into Israel to the north. Rockets continued to be fired for another 30 minutes. It was the busiest night in terms of rockets being shot into Israel so far this week. Keeping the misfire rate in mind, it lends strong credence to that taking place at the hospital.

When it comes to a group in Gaza, whether it’s Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, not having a big enough payload for such an explosion, there has been propaganda video showing the Al-Quds Brigades preparing to fire a Badr-3 rocket. It is also not reliable to guess what the payload that hit the hospital was based on sound because of factors such as humidity, temperature, wind, environment, and the type of recording device used.

Lastly, daytime video and photos of the site of impact show the explosion took place mainly in the hospital’s parking lot. There is no crater and the damage to surrounding buildings is inconsistent to suggest a payload from Israel.

I understand people not wanting to trust the Israeli government, but there has been more evidence pointing to a Gazan rocket hitting the hospital from other sources besides the Israelis. More than that, it is a wonder why news agencies are taking the word of Hamas at face value when their leaders have falsely claimed their fighters did not target civilians during their surprise attacks on October 7.